Just in time for opening day (not to be confused with last night’s opening night) our staff put together some bold predictions for the 2014 MLB season. From a fantasy perspective, these aren’t meant to be legitimate projections (but feel free to tell us how off base we are in the the comments). With that said, it will give you a sense of who each of our writers is high (or low) on, and their loose logic behind it.
With that in mind, on to our 2014 MLB bold predictions.
2014 MLB Bold Predictions: Batters AL
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Esten McLaren likes Brett Lawrie to keep his hot Spring rolling into the 2014 season (Photo: Fred Thornhill/Reuters).
Esten McLaren: Brett Lawrie will be an All-Star at 3B for the Blue Jays, hitting 25+ home runs and setting career highs across the board.
Chris Meaney: The average will be just over .300 for Robinson Cano like it always is, but he’ll fail to reach 20 homers in a season for the first time since 2008. The lack up protection in Seattle bothers me a bit and sometimes it takes a bit to get used to your new surroundings. I’ll give Cano 80 RBI, but not much more than that. Before Mark Teixeira came out and said he doesn’t trust his wrist, I would have said Tex would finish the season with more long balls, I don’t think it’ll be that big of a difference between the two, in terms of home runs. The average will be much higher for Cano.
Jon Collins: No longer in the protector’s role for Triple Crown King Miguel Cabrera, Fielder makes a run at the AL mark himself with the Rangers. While the right field fence is slightly longer in Texas, the ballpark favors left handed power pitchers and the center field fences are considerably closer to the plate (check the layout below from hittrackeronline.com). With that in mind, Fielder will increase his HR/FB% by 10 full points (to 23.5), marking the third time he’s hit over 20%. This factor helps his overall average, and RBI production leaving Prince with 40 HR/140 RBI and a career high .320 batting average.
Image may be NSFW.
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2014 MLB Bold Predictions: Pitchers AL
Esten McLaren: Danny Salazar will be an AL Cy Young finalist, recording over 200 strikeouts and 15+ wins.
Jon Collins: Royals SP Yordano Ventura is this year’s Jose Fernandez, winning the AL Rookie of the Year award. Last year’s 97.1 average fastball velocity from his brief Major League debut holds and with it Ventura posts a 9.0+K/9 mark, winning 14 games for a contending Royals team and posting top 25 ratios.
Chris Meaney: It’s not that bold of me to say that Justin Verlander and David Price will be AL Cy Young finalists, so I’ll go out on a limb and say Jered Weaver will join the two in the conversation. Yes, the velocity is down and K/9 has dropped from a career high 9.35 in 2010 to 6.82, but Weaver’s ERA should be around his career mark of 3.24 giving him another 20-win season. Weaver was 8-3 in his final 13 starts last season, allowing more than three earned runs only once. That is the Weaver we know.
2014 MLB Bold Predictions: Batters NL
Esten McLaren: Ryan Braun will test positive for steroids yet again, with the counts holding up for the second time. His season will be cut short in late June when handed a 162 game suspension.
Jon Collins: Giancarlo Stanton is the NL’s most valuable fantasy batter. His average returns to the .280-.290 range thanks to a reduction in strikeouts, and Stanton smacks 45 home runs to lead the Majors, thanks to his fifth straight season with a HR/FB ratio over 20%. With a rate like that, all he has to do is stay on the field to surpass 40 and with nine extra base hits in 60 Spring at bats, he’s looking ready for a productive season.
Chris Meaney: Matt Kemp is your 2014 NL MVP. Let’s go back to Kemp’s last full season in the bigs, in 2011. .324/.399/.586 with 39 home runs, 126 RBI, 115 runs and 40 stolen bases. I understand the fantasy community was a bit worried he may spend most of the season on the DL again, but for where he was going in drafts, he will be by far the steal of each and every draft out there. 30 plus homers with 100 RBI is a lock for Kemp.
2014 MLB Bold Predictions: Pitchers NL
Esten McLaren: Clayton Kershaw will record 25+ wins for the Dodgers while making 33 starts for the 4th consecutive year; en route to his third Cy Young award. He’ll have 5+ complete games for the second time in his career, including at least one perfect game, and multiple no hitters.
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Kenley Jansen: single season MLB saves record holder? (Photo: Paul Sancya/Associated Press).
Jon Collins: Kenley Jansen saves 63 games for the Dodgers, 10 more than his previous two seasons combined and an MLB record. Along the way, he strikes out 125 batters (Jansen struck out a silly 111 in 76.2 innings last season), more than all but 40 NL pitchers.
Chris Meaney: 77 strikeouts over 77.2 innings last year for Alex Wood, in only 11 starts. Wood was slated to be in the Braves starting five before the injuries to Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, he’ll be counted on even more now. Wood will win 15 plus games while striking out 200 plus for Atlanta. Far better than his average draft position of 228.
2014 MLB Bold Predictions: Rookies
Esten McLaren: Despite not making the Twins out of camp, Byron Buxton will become a rookie of the year finalist upon being a late spring call-up, finishing the season with 20+ homeruns.
Jon Collins: As I shared with FantasyPros as part of their bold predictions piece Jose Abreu leads the American League in home runs. Obviously, it is a bit of low hanging fruit to hype up Abreu right now but this also counts on a regression from Chris Davis (career numbers, 2013 2nd half) and Miguel Cabrera (regression, loss of Fielder’s protection) among others. Abreu hit 74 Cuban home runs in 169 games from 2010-2012 and while the quality of competition represents an upgrade, the 27 year old slugger who says he expected the MLB to be more difficult hits 40+ this year (and thus making my Yordano Ventura ROY projection much bolder).
Chris Meaney: What can I say about Billy Hamilton or Yordano Ventura that I already haven’t said. The Billy Hamilton hype is real. He will steal 80 plus bags and score 100 plus runs. Don’t be worried about the average, which I expect to be around .270, you don’t want him for his average. Hamilton is your NL ROY and I’m with Jon, Ventura grabs AL honors.
2014 MLB Bold Predictions: Bounceback
Esten McLaren: Grady Sizemore will play in over 100 games for the first time since 2009, hit .290/.380/.500 with 30 homeruns, 20 stolen bases, and 120 runs.
Jon Collins: In a marked change in opinion from the start of Spring Training I’m projecting big things from Jose Bautista. Hitting .375 this Spring with 11 extra base hits (6 HR), he carries that production into the regular season. This season, the Toronto outfielder slashes .275/.385/.600 giving him a.985 OPS, the third highest mark of his career and rebounding from two straight years of regression. Able to stay healthy and participate in 140+ games Bautista sees big year over year boosts in his counting stats as well.
Chris Meaney: A healthy Albert Pujols means a top 5 Fantasy Baseball player this year. Pujols will have 35 plus homers with 115 RBI and an average close to .300. He smacked the ball around pretty good in Spring and even ended up with a triple. Last year he swung the bat basically on one foot and could hardly run to first. Expect the Albert of old in 2014.
2014 MLB Bold predictions: MLB Season
Esten McLaren: The Los Angeles Dodgers will break the single season team win record of 116 currently shared by 1906 Cubs and 2001 Mariners, while going on to win the World Series, without registering a playoff loss.
Jon Collins: Led by strong seasons from opening night starter Andrew Cashner, and sleeper candidate Tyson Ross the San Diego Padres boast the best staff ERA in the Majors with a 3.22 mark. Five starting pitchers produce 10+ wins as part of a 14 game improvement which puts the Pads right in the middle of the NL Wild Card race.
Chris Meaney: Esten is a bit crazy with the thought of the Dodgers not losing a playoff game, bold indeed, but I do agree the Dodgers will break the single season win record. I like the Dodgers a lot this year, how could you not? I have them winning the World Series. It’ll be a good one too! Freeway style – Angels and Dodgers – Fall Classic.
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